PREPARED BY: Environmental Health Department
DATE: June 25, 2026
SUBJECT: Predictive Modeling Program Expanded to Pelee Island’s East Park Beach
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE
The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit’s (WECHU) predictive model program commenced on May 27 in conjunction with the 2026 routine beach monitoring program and has now been expanded to include East Park Beach on Pelee Island. A predictive beach model uses current weather conditions, environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, water turbidity, and historical beach data to estimate water quality on a given day. The model supplements weekly beach monitoring by providing timely information that supports prompt public notification when conditions change.
DISCUSSION
In 2025, four public beaches participated in the launch of the WECHU’s predictive modelling program. Following the program’s successful implementation and the model’s demonstrated accuracy in forecasting water quality, all seven routinely monitored public beaches agreed to participate in 2026.
Following the program’s success, the WECHU also identified an opportunity to extend predictive modelling to beaches not included in routine weekly sampling, including those on Pelee Island. Because Pelee Island is a geographically remote location accessible only by ferry, timely same-day water quality information offers added value for residents and visitors. The WECHU approached the Township of Pelee to explore participation in the program, and the Township agreed. While the Township has several public beaches, it selected East Park Beach, its most frequently used public beach, for inclusion in the predictive modelling program.
Results for East Park Beach are published alongside those for all other participating beaches on the WECHU website and through the Beach Hotline. Each weekday, excluding statutory holidays, municipal staff collect environmental readings at all monitored beaches. This data is entered into an established predictive model that estimates E. coli concentrations and generates a same-day recreational water risk level—low, moderate, or high. These risk levels are then communicated to the public on an ongoing basis, supporting recreational planning and informed decision-making about beach use.
To support implementation of the predictive modelling program, WECHU will promote it through multiple communication channels, including social media and printed materials. Communications will explain the purpose of the tool, where results can be accessed, and how the information can support safer beach decisions. This outreach will help ensure that residents and visitors to East Park Beach have access to timely water quality information before planning their visits.