In 2025, the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit (WECHU) introduced a predictive modeling program to enhance its established routine beach water sampling program. The model used current weather conditions and environmental factors to provide timely weekday results for water quality so beach users can make an informed decision before visiting the beaches.

Four local public beaches participated in the program: Colchester Beach, Holiday Beach, Lakeshore Lakeview Park West Beach, and Point Pelee North West Beach. The WECHU provided training, turbidity monitors, and thermometers to all participants. Municipal staff collected daily turbidity and water temperature measurements and submitted the data to the WECHU. By analyzing these variables, the model generated daily estimates of the likelihood of elevated E. coli levels as high, moderate, or low risk. The predictive risk level was published on the Beach Water Monitoring webpage and updated on the Beach Hotline (ext. 1490) on weekdays along with the routine beach water results. The routine beach water results continued to take precedence when determining overall beach warnings or closures.

The predictive model’s performance was evaluated by comparing its estimated E. coli levels with laboratory confirmed water sample results. Overall, the model showed strong agreement with the actual water results. This finding indicates that the predictive model serves as a reliable tool to support public health decision making regarding beach water safety.